Futures have led to frequent price fluctuations in silicon metal, while the closing transaction price of polysilicon has remained stable for now [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM August 11 News:

Silicon metal

prices

As of last Friday, oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was priced at 9,100-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the most-traded SI2509 silicon metal futures contract fluctuated considerably, with a maximum daily fluctuation of over 400 yuan/mt. Prices in the futures market changed frequently, and downstream users' purchasing as needed resulted in weak trading volume.

Production

On the supply side, production from resumed capacity in Xinjiang was released, and the weekly production of silicon metal maintained an increase MoM. The trend of simultaneous growth in supply and demand in August remained unchanged.

Inventory

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 547,000 mt on August 7, an increase of 7,000 mt WoW. Among this, social general warehouses held 118,000 mt, a decrease of 1,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 429,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), an increase of 8,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

At the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 45-49 yuan/kg, with an N-type polysilicon price index of 45.9 yuan/kg. Granular polysilicon was quoted at 43-46 yuan/kg. Polysilicon quotes remained stable over the weekend. Following the conclusion of relevant polysilicon meetings last week, the market is now focusing on downstream and power plant meetings this week. The current situation of production cuts in the upstream sector remains uncertain, and the market is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics.

Production

Polysilicon production in August is expected to increase significantly, with a MoM increase of approximately 25%. The main increments are concentrated in Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and other regions. The peak of polysilicon supply may gradually approach.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory has risen to some extent following the completion of previous procurements, and enterprises may face greater pressure going forward.

Module

prices

Recently, module enterprises in the market have reduced their low-price destocking quotes, with a slight increase in low prices. However, the overall center of trading prices remains low, and it is expected that module prices will continue to be subject to bargaining in the near future. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.673 yuan/W, 0.696 yuan/W, and 0.675 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.661 yuan/W and 0.676 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Module production in August is expected to increase slightly compared to expectations. Due to a recent increase in orders, some module factories in east China have slightly increased their production schedules. It is expected that module production in August will remain basically unchanged compared to July.

Inventory

In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory level is still expected to rise slightly in the near future.

High-purity quartz sand

prices

Currently, the domestic price of inner-layer sand is 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the price of domestically produced high-purity quartz sand has remained stable. However, due to inventory pressure in crucibles, the center of trading prices has slightly decreased. Nevertheless, supported by costs, the decline is limited, and prices are expected to remain stable going forward.

Production

Recently, domestic sand enterprises have seen both increases and decreases in their operations. It is expected that the production of quartz sand in August will rise slightly MoM from July.

Inventory

The inventory of sand enterprises has remained basically stable, with domestic supply and demand showing a balanced performance.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 17.5-18.5 yuan/m², with prices rising.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 18.5-19.5 yuan/m², with prices rising.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 10.8-11.5 yuan/m². There is still an expectation for further increases in the current market's low transaction prices. As of now, the agreed transaction prices have basically approached 11 yuan/m², and the bulk transaction prices are generally not lower than 11 yuan/m².

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 11.8-12.5 yuan/m², with prices rising.

Production

Currently, there is an expectation for a continued decline in domestic glass production, and top-tier enterprises still have the intention to further cut production, although this has not yet been fully planned.

Inventory

Glass inventory has decreased significantly compared to month-end July. This week, the domestic supply-demand balance has maintained a tight balance, but due to the impact of stockpiling, inventory is expected to continue to decline.